Iran's Role in Sudan: Attempts to Consolidate Influence and Control Over the Red Sea

 

In recent years, Sudan has experienced internal unrest, leading to an escalation of political and military conflict between rival factions. This instability has opened the door for regional and international powers to intervene in ways that serve their strategic interests. Among these powers is Iran, which has long sought to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa and East Africa, particularly in Sudan, in pursuit of various political, economic, and security objectives.

Iran’s Attempts to Consolidate Its Influence in Sudan

Iran is known for its strategy of exploiting chaos and internal conflicts in countries to expand its influence, and Sudan represents a unique case for this approach. Dr. Hassan Hashemian, an expert on Iranian affairs, points out that the volatile situation in Sudan presents a "unique opportunity" for Iran to deepen its influence by supporting certain Sudanese factions, especially amid the decline in direct international intervention and the shifting focus of Western powers to other issues.

The Red Sea: The Ultimate Strategic Objective

By providing financial and logistical support to some Sudanese groups, Iran can influence the course of the internal conflict, thereby strengthening its position in the country. With the absence of comprehensive political solutions to the Sudanese crisis, any external intervention will have a significant impact on shaping the trajectory of events in favor of the parties receiving such support. Iran is fully aware of this dynamic and seeks to capitalize on it.

In addition to attempting to influence internal Sudanese affairs, Iran aims to achieve a long-term strategic goal: controlling vital waterways, foremost among them the Red Sea. Sudan’s geographic location, with its extended coastline along the Red Sea, makes it a focal point in Iran’s strategies. Tehran views this coastline as an opportunity to extend its influence over this crucial maritime corridor, which links Europe and Asia and serves as a vital artery for global trade, particularly for oil transport.

The Red Sea is not only a strategic trade route but also a stage for competition among regional and international powers. The growing Iranian influence over this passage could raise concerns among several nations, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which regard the Red Sea as integral to their national security. Therefore, it is expected that Iran, through strengthening its ties with certain Sudanese factions, will seek to establish a military or logistical presence along the Red Sea.

Exploiting Chaos to Gain Influence

Iran's tactics in Sudan are not new; Tehran has a long history of exploiting chaos and internal conflicts in countries like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to bolster its influence. Sudan represents a similar case, where Iran seeks to take advantage of the political and military instability to achieve strategic gains. Chaos allows Iran to operate covertly and penetrate through unofficial channels, such as supporting militias or providing financial and military assistance to Sudanese factions whose interests align with Iran’s.

Amid the complexity of the Sudanese situation and the absence of political solutions, Iran appears well-positioned to expand its influence in Sudan, particularly with a focus on controlling the Red Sea. These moves are part of Iran's broader strategy to assert its influence in the region and enhance its capacity to shape the course of regional conflicts. However, Iran’s attempts may face challenges from regional and international powers that view the Red Sea as essential to their national security, foreshadowing increased tensions in the region.